By treating the town’s electoral history from 1994 to 2022 as a political laboratory, we uncover a high-stakes landscape defined by razor-thin margins and long-term endurance. This 28-year dataset reveals that while Cobourg often feels like an impenetrable fortress for those in power, the foundation of that power is sometimes held together by fewer votes than it takes to fill a single dinner table.

The data used for this analysis can be found here:

Cobourg Municipal Election Results

Municipal elections are often treated as routine affairs. The same names appear, incumbents usually survive, and political change feels slow. But looking closely at nearly three decades of election results in Cobourg tells a more complicated story.

• • • Incumbency is extraordinarily powerful. Data from past elections shows incumbents win roughly 88% of the time when they run again. Once someone gets onto council, removing them becomes difficult. The real barrier in local politics is entry, not survival.
    • An analysis of the winners suggests that candidates with last names in the A-M range have been particularly successful in recent years, though exceptions exist throughout history.
    • Municipal outcomes can hinge on microscopic margins. In 2018, a council ranking was decided by only five votes. That is not an abstraction, it is the turnout of a single apartment building.
    • Modern mandates are weaker than they once were. Around 2000, mayoral candidates could win more than 70% of the vote. Recent elections show victories closer to 50%, suggesting a more divided electorate.
    • Persistence matters. Local political careers often involve losing, returning, and trying again. Some of Cobourg’s longest-serving figures followed winding paths rather than steady climbs.

Finally, crowded ballots dramatically change election math. In years with many candidates, a small but loyal base can be enough to win.
The lesson is simple: in small-town politics, power often rests on surprisingly fragile foundations.

The statistical reality is clear: no incumbent is truly safe, and no resident can afford to stay home on election day.

Here are the various analysis reports of the election results:

• • • Cobourg Municipal Election Analysis Summary
    • Cobourg Election Analysis (2014, 2018, 2022)
    • Cobourg Municipal Election Analysis (1994–2022)
    • 5 Surprising Lessons from Three Decades of Cobourg Elections
    • Decoding the Ballot – A Beginner’s Guide to Electoral Margins and Vote Shares
    • A Legacy of Governance – A Historical Review of Cobourg Municipal Leadership (1994–2022)
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• This is a slide presentation on the “Analysis of Cobourg Municipal Elections (1994-2022)”:
  
  
  • • Cobourg Electoral Trends